Probability · 4 minute read
Gambler’s Fallacy
A random streak can make us expect the opposite result next, even when the odds have not changed.
Try thisAsk whether the next event is truly connected to the previous ones.
In plain English
What is it?
Independent events do not keep a memory of what happened before them.
In the real world
What does it look like?
After five heads in a row, a fair coin is still equally likely to land heads on the next toss.
Make it useful
How do you think more clearly?
Ask whether the next event is truly connected to the previous ones.