Memory · 4 minute read
Hindsight Bias
After an outcome is known, it can feel as though it was obvious all along.
Try thisRecord your predictions and uncertainty before the result arrives.
In plain English
What is it?
Our memory quietly rewrites earlier uncertainty to fit what eventually happened.
In the real world
What does it look like?
After a company succeeds, people remember its risky early decisions as an inevitable master plan.
Make it useful
How do you think more clearly?
Record your predictions and uncertainty before the result arrives.