Probability · 4 minute read
Base Rate Neglect
A compelling story can make us ignore how common something actually is.
Try thisStart with the base rate, then update it with the new evidence.
In plain English
What is it?
Specific details grab our attention, while the broader statistical starting point quietly disappears.
In the real world
What does it look like?
A personality description may sound like an entrepreneur even when the person is far more likely to belong to a larger profession.
Make it useful
How do you think more clearly?
Start with the base rate, then update it with the new evidence.