Better judgment · 4 minute read
Base Rate Thinking
Good estimates begin with what usually happens before considering what is special this time.
Try thisFind the outside view before building the inside story.
In plain English
What is it?
A reliable forecast starts outside the story—with the results from similar cases.
In the real world
What does it look like?
Before predicting a project finish date, look at how long comparable projects actually took.
Make it useful
How do you think more clearly?
Find the outside view before building the inside story.